2010年8月18日 星期三

Why Do Most Forex Traders Lose? By Jarratt Davis

 

為什麼常常聽到交易者在初期交易時

通常會有95%死在沙灘上

於兩年後放棄

如果您穿越不過操盤手的成長階段的話

在交易中,只要你上網搜尋就會有成千上萬的神奇指標、程式、策略可供你使用

但是為什麼絕大多數的交易者還是不會賺錢

論文中明確的指出是因為缺乏耐心和紀律

還有太慵懶,就像球員不努力練習,卻期望天天投出三分球

因為在我們的社會中大家講求效率跟速度

還有慾望立即被滿足的需求

你可以觀察一下當您在銀行或商場排隊時

大家的表情是不是都是滿臉不耐煩

還有對系統勝率的迷思

95%的人對高勝率系統相當著迷

卻不知道高勝率與高報酬是互相衝突的

這個想法使一般的交易者難以接受


Why Do Most Forex Traders Lose?

By Jarratt Davis
It's estimated that 95% of all forex traders will lose money and give up within the first 2 years. Those are terrible odds. This article will look at the key reasons from the perspective of a winning trader who used to lose consistently.

I believe that discipline and patience are the main reasons why most traders lose and give up. There are many strategies and systems available for trading forex and some of them actually work. However in our society we have been conditioned to want instant gratification. The next time you are standing in a line-up at your bank or grocery store look at the other people's expressions. Most people hate waiting at all and are very impatient.

With trading it is very important to play by the rules of your system, how can you get consistent results if you trade inconsistently? It is impossible and many traders because they are impatient and want to get in a trade will just enter in at times that are not dictated by the rules of their system. It is mentally challenging to know that there are only 2 directions and if you just pick one right you will make money. How hard can it be to pick one direction we think. Well, apparently for 95% of people it's hard. If it was easy then everyone would win and the game could not exist
If you take a disciplined approach and are patient and wait for all of the conditions to line up before you get in a trade then you will be on your way to success. If this is too hard for you then it would be best to find someone else to manage your money.

Another reason why a forex trader may lose is that they do not spend enough time testing their system or methodology. It is a good idea to go back in time and see how your method would have performed over the last couple years. It's also important to consider the time of day that you trade. If you are a robot then you can trade 24 hours a day but probably you will need to eat and sleep like the rest of us. If you trade for 4 hours a day then you should make it the same 4 hours and get statistics for the past year or 2 for those same 4 hours only.
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